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Thread Tools |
26th April 2020, 22:50 |
#11
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Mania Member
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Berdasarkan rekomendasi yang dikeluarkan oleh WHO, Indonesia akan bisa memenuhi kriteria "Testing Benchmark" COVID-19 dalam waktu dekat ini.
WHO menyatakan bahwa suatu wilayah harus berusaha mencapai rasio tidak lebih dari 10% antara total kasus yang terkonfirmasi dengan total test yang telah dilakukan. Pada saat in Indonesia berada pada level sekitar 12%, sedangkan USA masih di angka 18+%.
Spoiler
Menurut perkiraan, Indonesia akan mampu memenuhi kriteria "Testing Benchmark" ini di sekitar awal Bulan Mei, asalkan kasus-kasus baru tidak meledak tiba-tiba. COVID-19: Total Kasus | Kematian | CFR | Testing |
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22nd May 2020, 03:31 |
#12
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Mania Member
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Sweden is still nowhere near 'herd immunity,' even though it didn't go into lockdown ...Sweden has revealed that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April. The figure, which Sweden's Public Health Authority confirmed to CNN, is roughly similar to other countries that have data and well below the 70-90% needed to create "herd immunity" in a population. It comes after the country adopted a very different strategy to stop the spread of coronavirus to other countries by only imposing very light restrictions on daily life. Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said the number was a "little lower" than expected "but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent." "It squares pretty well with the models we have," he added, while speaking at a news conference in Stockholm. The study carried out by Sweden's Public Health Agency aims to determine the potential herd immunity in the population, based on 1,118 tests carried out in one week. It aims to carry out the same number of tests every seven days over an eight-week period. Results from other regions would be released later, a Public Health Authority spokesperson said. Sweden has adopted a different strategy to other Nordic nations during the pandemic, choosing to avoid a lockdown and keep most schools, restaurants, salons and bars open. It did, however, ask people to refrain from making long journeys, placing an emphasis on personal responsibility. The strategy was criticized by Swedish researchers early on, who said that attempting to create herd immunity had low support. But the authorities denied that achieving herd immunity was their goal. Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a given population -- 70 to 90% -- becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers to reach them. No community has yet achieved this and a vaccine "will get us to herd immunity quicker" than infection, Michael Mina, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, said in a recent interview with Public Radio International's The World. Sweden's percentage of people with antibodies is not far off that of other countries that did enforce lockdowns. In Spain, 5% of people had developed coronavirus antibodies by May 14, according to preliminary results of an epidemiological study by the government. According to Martin Kuba, an official Jihocesky region in the Czech Republic who spearheaded a randomly selected mass testing for coronavirus among the general public and frontline workers, the initial results showed that the proportion of people who have had the disease stood at "single digit percent" rather than "fraction of a percent". Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, estimated earlier this month on CNN Tonight with Don Lemon that between 5% and 15% of people in the US have been infected. He said the coronavirus was going to circulate and infect at least 60% to 70% of the population before it slows down, but warned that the country had "a long ways to go" to get to a level of herd immunity. A report he wrote along with other epidemiologists and a historian estimated this would likely take 18 to 24 months... =============== Mungkin kalau orang Swedia sama bandelnya dengan orang Indonesia, HI di Swedia bisa tercapai dengan cepat... Dijamin!! |
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22nd May 2020, 07:58 |
#14
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Mania Member
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22nd May 2020, 08:11 |
#15
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Groupie Member
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Quote:
Herd immunity tanpa vaksin itu pembantaian. Anggap saja hanya 1% orang tertular yang meninggal, untuk mencapai herd immunity tanpa vaksin berdasarkan asumsi 70% menjadi kebal maka akan ada sekitar 2 juta orang yang meninggal karena COVID-19. |
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King of Losers |
22nd May 2020, 09:43 |
#16
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Mania Member
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Quote:
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22nd May 2020, 09:51 |
#17
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Groupie Member
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Quote:
Dan ane liat yg akan dilakukan adl PSBB + HI secara fleksibel..jd akan bisa diperketat dan bisa dilonggarkan. |
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27th May 2020, 12:34 |
#18
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Mania Member
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ia, tidak berefek karena jangka waktunya harus sampai kiamat....
begitu lockdown selesai, orang luar masuk, eh kena lagi.... lockdown lagi, kasus 0 lagi, buka lockdown lagi.... orang luar masuk lagi, eh kena lagi.... terus aja sampai kiamat...... karantina 14 hari? emang orang bisnis bisa dan mau dikarantina 14 hari kaga ngapa apain, terus yg keluar biaya siapa? terus yakin 14 hari virusnya kaga mati?..... makanya lockdown adalah kebiksanaan konyol saya pikir, itu bukan memecahkan masalah tapi cuma mengulur masalah, karena manusia adalah mahluk sosial dan ekonomi... jadi lockdown is bullshit..... solusi sekarang adalah solusi paling bagus yaitu ,mengulur waktu dan membuat kurva melandai sampai ditemukan obatnya.... akibatnya ekonomi masih jalan ( walau ikutan melandai dan tersendat) yang kena juga relative sedikit...( karena protokol yg ada walau terus menerus ada penambahan).. walau seakan akan lebih jelek dari lockdown.... |
Last edited by dwi2124; 27th May 2020 at 12:38.. |
28th May 2020, 11:07 |
#19
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Mania Member
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Coronavirus: Has Sweden's herd immunity strategy failed? Sweden was the only country in the world which decided against enforcing a lockdown to combat the coronavirus pandemic, instead believing that the population could build up herd immunity to the virus. The United Kingdom also considered battling Covid-19 with a herd immunity approach but soon changed tack and went into nationwide lockdown on 23 March. While the rest of Europe closed down, Sweden carried on as normal- schools, restaurants, shops, cinemas and bars all remained open however it did end up banning gatherings of over 50 people at the end of March. Now we are seeing the results of that decision, taken by the country's Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. . Herd immunity still far off in Sweden Sweden, which has a population of 10.3 million, has one of the highest death rates per capita due to Covid-19. The country recorded 6.08 deaths per million residents during a seven-day period- higher than the United Kingdom (5.57), Belgium (4.28) and the United States (4.11). Compared to neighbouring Norway, who went into lockdown on 12 March, Sweden's fatality rate per million of their population according to Our World in Data's website, stands at 408.44, while Norway's is almost a tenth of that, 43.35. By late April, just 7.3% of Stockholm residents were found to have developed Covid-19 antibodies, according to a national study. Recent figures claim the percentage who have gained immunity now stands at around 20% but far from the 60% required for herd immunity to be declared. Former Swedish state epidemiologist Annika Linde, who was in office during two recent epidemics- the Swine Flu epidemic in 2009 and the Sars epidemic, three years later, says the government got it wrong not to lock the country down like the rest of the continent. Lockdown, she told The Guardian this week, would have bought valuable time to set up a contingency strategy. "I think that we needed more time for preparedness. If we had shut down very early ... we would have been able, during that time, to make sure that we had what was necessary to protect the vulnerable," she explained. Today, Sweden's death toll from Covid-19-related illnesses stands at 4,220- almost half of the victims were elderly patients in nursing homes. So has Tegnell's herd immunity plan fallen flat? Or would lockdown have made no difference anyway? "I think that's very difficult to know," Tegnall told HardTalk last week. "The death toll in Sweden is mainly in facilities for long-term, ill, elderly people. We had an unfortunate spread in those facilities in the same way that some other countries had, but not our Nordic neighbours. That's something which we are trying to investigate. These people meet a lot of other people, even in a lockdown. You can't isolate them. A lockdown would not have stopped the spread into care homes. When it comes to the death toll, this didn't work out the way we hoped. On the other hand, the connection between our basic strategy in slowing down the spread- if that really, in the long run would affect the total death toll in a society or not is not clear yet. We have at least 10, maybe 10 times higher level of immunity in the population which means we are much further into the spread than other countries. If that means those other countries would reach a similar death tolls to us or not, I think that's very difficult to judge". - https://en.as.com/en/2020/05/27/othe...35_137088.html |
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28th May 2020, 12:22 |
#20
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Groupie Member
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Jelas strategi bodohnya gagal. Itu ide konyol berusaha mendapatkan herd immunity tanpa vaksin.
Cara yang paling bagus itu temukan semua orang yang tertular dan karantina mereka. Kalau itu tidak bisa dilakukan maka terpaksa karantina semua orang alias PSBB ketat atau lockdown. Jangan pikir lockdown itu tidak bisa berhasil. Kalau percaya herd immunity bisa terjadi, berarti percaya bisa ada kekebalan. Kalau bisa ada kekebalan maka lockdown bisa menghilangkan virus. Pada dasarnya lockdown itu membuat herd immunity pada orang yang sudah terlanjur tertular. Jadi yang tertular itu kebal atau meninggal, tapi dijaga agar tidak menular ke orang lain yang belum tertular. Kalau semua orang yang tertular sudah sembuh atau meninggal sedangkan virusnya tidak bisa menular ke orang lain karena dilakukan pembatasan jarak maka virus sudah tidak ada lagi di suatu wilayah. Tinggal jaga agar virus tidak masuk lagi dari wilayah lain. Kalaupun nanti muncul lagi karena gagal dicegat masuk maka sudah bisa pakai cara pertama yaitu temukan orang yang tertular dan tracking semua orang yang ada kontak dengan orang yang tertular itu. Test kit sudah tersedia banyak dan kapasitas test sudah meningkat, beda dari waktu awal COVID-19 jadi lebih mudah melakukan cara pertama kalau ada gelombang baru yang masuk dari luar wilayah. Jadi tidak perlu lagi karantina semua orang, hanya perlu karantina orang yang tertular dan yang ada kontak saja. SARS dan MERS bisa selesai karena virus dicegah untuk menular ke orang yang belum tertular. Bukan karena herd immunity, bukan karena ada vaksin. |
King of Losers Last edited by kumalraj; 28th May 2020 at 12:26.. |
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